Many observers predicted China to be a leader in 5G, but an updated forecast shows an unprecedented deployment pace increase.
Analysts from Mobile Experts have released accurate 5G predictions over the past four years. Strong reports from China have caused the firm to dramatically revise their latest forecast.
The company predicts 5G will spread across most of the world at a steady pace over several years. China, however, will be a lot more aggressive.
Joe Madden, Principal Analyst for Mobile Experts, said:
“For most of the world, 5G deployment will be spread over many years and will solidify slowly over time.
China is the exception; political forces are driving a huge nationwide deployment at incredible speed. We ran the numbers, and they will surprise most of the industry.
We had been limiting our forecast based on capacity issues in the supply chain, but with big recent investments in component capacity, we have bumped up our forecast for 2019.”
The company’s report is a complete technical and market review of ASIC, FPGA, ADC, DAC, LDMOS, GaN, PLL, and RF components in remote radio heads.
“The dollar content for semiconductors per transceiver will drop sharply as we move down to lower power levels in Massive MIMO, but every component on the market will ship in unprecedented numbers, and with new levels of integration,” commented Madden.
“Overall, 5G will increase the dollar content per RRH devoted to power transistors, ADCs/DACs, and processors due to massive MIMO and the wide bandwidth of the 5G signal.”
China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom will together deploy huge numbers of base stations during the first months of 2019 — the first year of deployment.
This large ramp-up in 5G deployment is being coined the ‘China Surge’ by Mobile Experts and is expected to last until 2021. After 2021, the report predicts China will return to a similar pace as the rest of the world.
Mobile Experts’ full report can be purchased here.
What are your thoughts on China’s deployment of 5G? Let us know in the comments.